The Georgetown Hoyas’ Road to a #1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament
There is not a more sure-fire way to survive the Second Round (what used to be the First Round) of the NCAA Tournament than to be a number 1 seed. With no 16 seed ever winning in this round, that is exactly where a Georgetown team that has made first or second-game exits four times since 2008 needs to be. Having history on their side would certainly be a plus, and luckily the 2012-2013 Georgetown Hoyas have the ability to put themselves in that position. With a 24-5 record, a number 5 ranking in the AP Poll, and a share in the Big East regular season Championship, the Hoyas enter the Big East Tournament as strong contenders for a coveted number 1 seed. However, one task remains: they need to win the Big East Tournament.
Mar 9, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Georgetown Hoyas guards Markel Starks (5) and D
This always-daunting task is mandated for the Hoyas to keep their number 1 seed hopes alive because this year it looks like only one spot will be open for a Big East team. With 9 of the teams in the AP top 10 all coming from four conferences, it simply becomes a numbers game. Gonzaga has won the West Coast Conference Tournament and finished number 1 in both the AP and USA Today Polls. This basically guarantees them a top slot. Duke is currently number 2 and the only other real threat to them in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament is 9th ranked Miami University. Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State will battle in the Big Ten Tournament as the 3rd, 6th, 8th, and 10th ranked teams, respectively. Kansas sits at 7th but will probably have to take down 11th ranked Kansas State to win the Big 12 Tournament. And Louisville and Georgetown, 4th and 5th, respectively, are slated to meet in the Big East finals if all goes according to plan.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has a very short-term memory. The teams that emerge from the scrap-fights that are sure to be the major conference championships will add not only this conference championship to their resumé, but most likely a win over another top-ranked team. With 3 spots left and the favored winners of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East Tournaments all coming from the AP Top 10, look for previous ranking to defer to conference championship status. Sure, last year North Carolina lost the ACC Championship to Florida State and still got the top seeding in the NCAA Tournament. The difference here is that Florida State was not even a top 15 team at the time and North Carolina had already established themselves as a power. With multiple top contenders in each conference, the likelihood is that they will have to play each other in their respectively conference finals, leaving room only for one winner.
In Georgetown’s case, this translates to a probable Big East Championship finals versus Louisville, a team seeded below them in the Big East Tournament but ranked above them in the AP Poll. If Georgetown wins, they have proven that they are the top team from the Big East. If they lose, Louisville has. And even if Louisville flops and exits the tournament early, a Georgetown team that loses in the Big East Championship game has to argue that they deserve a 1 seed over 3 over top-rated conference championships. Barring a bevy of upset losses by the 8 other teams in the AP Top 10, Georgetown is going to have to earn that top seed in the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big East Tournament.
For Hoyas’ fans, the good news is that they are well-positioned to do so. They have beaten every Big East Team and are coming off of a 12-1 stretch which includes five wins over ranked teams. Otto Porter Jr. just won Big East Player of the Year and Big East Coach of the Year awards went to Coach John Thompson III. They are as hot of a team as they have been since they made it to the Final Four in 2007. However, as recent NCAA Tournament losses to 11 seeded NC State, 11 seeded VCU, 14 seeded Ohio, and 10 seeded Davidson have proven, Georgetown cannot afford to overlook its opponents. The tournament action starts at noon tomorrow against Cincinatti, and the Hoyas should look for an onslaught of coverage on their star Porter. Teams desperate for tournament wins are willing to be risky this time of year, and willingness to leave supporting players open so that Players of the Year cannot single-handedly win games.
But if Porter continues his unselfish play and Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera keep up the hot shooting that lead them to 12.4 and 9.0 points per game, respectively, look for Georgetown to be daring history to rewrite itself in its first NCAA Tournament game.